Analyst: Linux will overtake Windows within 3 years

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Apr. 29, 2004

IBM has published an Interview with Stacey Quandt, a Linux and open source industry analyst. Quandt explains why she feels Linux will overtake Windows as the number one operating system within the next three years. Her reasons may shock you!

In part of the interview, Quandt discusses the prospects for Linux on the desktop:

"Another milestone to watch for is when Linux gains enough momentum on the desktop to pull in more ISVs. There’s the potential for a lot of innovation that could take place in user space applications on Linux. The desktop is Microsoft’s last stronghold in the market. So there’s a lot of potential for Linux to become a much stronger play there.

Do you think there will there be parity for the desktop?

Parity takes a long time . . . and especially against a convicted monopolist. I think the milestone to look for is when Linux takes 10% of the market. It’s all about when corporate IT says that they will use Linux as their primary desktop operating system. This doesn’t mean that users have to give up on Windows applications, but I think we will see a decline in the use of the Windows operating system on the desktop.

"A number of companies are doing pilots right now, but I think the timeframe is more like the next two years. In that time we’ll see tremendous growth in the Linux desktop. "Tremendous" means that we’re going to see it move from being a fringe market to something that ISVs and hardware vendors are porting to and supporting."

You can read the full interview online, here.

(Click here for further information)

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